In 2019 Windows 10 overtakes Windows 7's market share for the first time.

BUT Mach4 is unlikely to overtake Mach3 market share in 10 years since in 2019 Mach4 still has probably only 10-15% the number of users of MACH3.

NFS needs to do something to win over more MACH3 users. Discounted upgrade path perhaps.

Is MACH4 going to be simply as successful as only Windows Vista or windows 8.X while people wait for Mach5?

Hi reuelt,

BUT Mach4 is unlikely to overtake Mach3 market share in 10 years since in 2019 Mach4 still has probably only 10-15% the number of users of MACH3.

You raise some interesting questions......

There is without a doubt a large and loyal Mach3 user base. But where did you get this information:

Mach4 still has probably only 10-15% the number of users of MACH3.

I am not going to say that you are incorrect but I have being trying to estimate that proportion for some time. I have
no evidence one way or another. I don't think it is helpful to bring an unsubstantiated piece of data to this conversation.

One source of information that I have been trying to tap is the member traffic on the forum. At any given time there
are a large number of guests on the forum and the overwhelming majority of them are reading from the Mach3 board,
or at least non-Mach4 boards. However a guest  cannot post a reply or start a topic.

I have been trying to estimate the number of posts in the Mach3 board vs the Mach4. Regrettably the forum stats don't
yield those numbers directly.

What the forum does yield up is the number of topics.
In the Mach3 board the last post in the 1000th most recent topic occurred in 23/10/2017
In the Mach4 board the last post in the 1000th most recent topic occurred in 13/2/2017

Current stats for the Mach3 board is 150,123 posts in 18,397 topics for an average of 8.16 posts per topic.
Current stats for the Mach4 board is 17,246 posts in 1,762 topic for an average of 9.78 posts per topic.

Thus in the Mach3 board since 23/10/2017 I would expect 8,160 posts or 480 posts per month.
In the Mach4 board since 13/2/2017 I would expect 9,780 posts or 399 posts per month.

This is an interesting result......it suggests that while it is assumed that Mach3 is the vast majority of users that
Mach4 users, the small minority, have achieved 83% of the forum traffic. It suggests to me that there is much more
interest and activity among Mach4 users than many would guess. In absence of NFS stating the sales or rate
thereof its the best (documented)  indicator I have.

NFS needs to do something to win over more MACH3 users. Discounted upgrade path perhaps.

Why bother? Many people are happy with Mach3 and NFS no doubt derive sales income therefrom. Mach4 is approximately
the same value and NFS derive a proportionate share of income from Mach4 sales. It would be silly to discount your shiny new
product.....I mean do you go to a car yard and see this years model discounted.....no, you see the old models discounted.
No doubt if you have followed my posts you will be aware that I am of the opinion that NFS need to make OEM sales, and
I suspect they are. The sales are of much higher value and therefore hugely significant to the business. This need to produce
flexible and fully functioning software that can be used by OEMs in their own machines dominates NFS strategies and
development priorities and we as Hobby users get to benefit.

Is MACH4 going to be simply as successful as only Windows Vista or windows 8.X while people wait for Mach5?

My subjective opinion is that Mach4 is ALREADY successful. In my previous post to stevehuck Mach4 has overtaken Mach3
in terms of functionality and has been light years ahead in terms of programming flexibility for years. If you what to try it
go ahead. If you don't just carry on with Mach3.....but don't whinge when you find Mach4 out performing Mach3.

Craig

Hi,
I stated:

Mach4 users, the small minority, have achieved 83% of the forum traffic

Which clearly is rubbish, what I meant to say is that Mach4 traffic is 83% as much as Mach3 traffic.

Apologies....funny how you can read something many times before posting and yet a glaring inconsistency
still gets through!!!

Craig

(Survey by Bob Warfield)
Market share 2017 (CNC Control Low End Market)
MACH3 - 47.5%
LinuxCNC – 18.9%
MACH4 – 4.57%
GRBL/Carbide Motion – 3.%
UCCNC – 3.0%
Flashcut – 1.52%

Trend from 2016
MACH3  gained in market share from 2016
MACH4 dropped slightly in Market share from 2016.
All others lost market share.

He can only publish 2018 results in 2019.

Craig,
I think it is possible to guestimate from NEW USERS introducing themselves.
How many of them say they have got Mach4 vs those who say they have Mach3?

Also Mach3 users may have more than 1 machine.

Number of Products listed made for MACH3 on ebay far exceed those listed as compatible with Mach4.

Hi,

Also Mach3 users may have more than 1 machine.

What.....and Mach4 users are not going to have more than one machine??

Number of Products listed made for MACH3 on ebay far exceed those listed as compatible with Mach4

True, but what does that signify?

Have you questioned the notion that the most respected manufacturers of Mach3 controllers are EXACTLY the same
manufacturers of Mach4 products. That suggests to me that they are the businesses whom are prepared to invest
the effort and resources to make Mach4 products. They are of the opinion that Mach4 is here and here to stay and
they have put their money where their mouth is.

I don't trust Chinese products for use with Mach4 and I am not really happy about their quality and usefulness with
Mach3 either. I fail to see that the number of rubbishy components and assemblies on sale is an true indication of the
quality or lack thereof of either Mach3 or Mach4. That would be like saying that because 90% of the clothes to be bought
in Sydney, being made in China, must mean that Armani suits must be crap.

I think it is possible to guestimate from NEW USERS introducing themselves.
How many of them say they have got Mach4 vs those who say they have Mach3?

That is at least a documented indication as to what those newcomers are doing. Question: Do those newcomers
actually represent the collective uptake of Mach4?  I'm dubious.....many of them don't go on to buy Mach3 either?

I'm interested in the results of the survey you posted. Who is Bob Warfield? Where and how did he collect the data?
Where did he publish?

If the data is genuinely representative it supports your contention that Mach3 is ten times more used than Mach4.
You may recall that I did not call your contention wrong, in fact left to guess I would have come to a similar conclusion.

What that does not account for is the large amount of traffic that Mach4 users are generating given their apparently
much smaller numbers. My contention (opinion) is that those users are actively developing their machines and increasing
their understanding. Their seeming over representation in the traffic statistics is due to their enthusiasm and that enthusiasm
speaks well for the quality of Mach4.

In any event this is a purely academic conversation. Mach4 has just recently surpassed Mach in terms of functionality
and has always been more flexible. When those qualities are sought after then Mach4 will be taken up. At the current
time it would appear that most Mach3 users are happy enough with their software solution....that's good isn't it?
It bemuses me that Mach3 users should try to run down or criticize Mach4 users for their choice, especially given you've
never used it or vehemently oppose the notion of an external controller.

Craig

Mach4 still has probably only 10-15% the number of users of MACH3.

I would argue that it's much lower than that. With all the chinese machines for sale that come with Mach3, there are probably more new Mach3 users every day than Mach4 users. Granted, many of these are pirated copies.

I think it is possible to guestimate from NEW USERS introducing themselves.

The number of users that use the forum is probably as low as 5%-10% of the total user base. And the number that introduce themselves is probably 5%-10% of those.

Hi Gerry,
I agree on both counts.

Trying to use the forum to estimate a proportion of users is probably hopeless.

Ultimately Mach4, Mach3, UCCNC and LinuxCNC will attract (or lose) market share on the basis of functionality and value.
All four are strong contenders.

Hobby CNCer's are spoiled for choice.

Craig

Ok my penny worth of input
I have used both mach3 and mach4 both are licensed with ArtSoft

The mach3 had a usb controller it worked till it failed guess where it came from ,no prizes for the correct answere
So i got a mach4 lic and a ESS , the mill runs much smoother  with this set up and with the addition of lua very easy to customise to my needs

Now the both do the same job control the mil but for me the mach4 setup is better

Yes it’s a point that can be argued add infinite but to what end use what you are happy with but please do not shout down others for their choice it’s a free world and long may it stay that way

One OT comment a brush with the big C  puts things into perspective well it did for me , I am good now the guy with the stanly knife got it all, rearranged the plumbing a bit

Just my take on thing no offence intended to any reader
Stuart

I don't think there's any debate that Mach4 is not better than Mach3. It clearly is, based on everything I've read.